For about a year I have been wrestling with an equation that could identify the TRUE worth of ecosystems, without the artificial inflation caused by extractive industries, government subsidies, and short-term exploitation.
Why Focus on the Blackland Prairie?
Texas has no shortage of endangered ecosystems, the Blackland Prairie is personal. I grew up on this land. George Strait writes country songs about this land. It's a disappearing relic, paved over for another concrete dream.
But this isn't a eulogy-its a calculation. This isn't for the visualizers, the ones who think in colorful landscapes and geometric beauty. This is for the non-visualizers, the ones who think in equations, balance sheets, and returns on investments. The ones who prefer money over trees.
Originally covering about 12 million acres, today less than 1% remains statewide, fragmented into small patches. San Antonio's portion includes 175,000 acres of Blackland Prairie, which accounted for about 56% of the city's total land area (GIS ESRI-rough estimate). However, the exact amount that remains within San Antonio today is uncertain, as no comprehensive survey has been conducted to confirm the current acreage.
ArcGIS. Pink blob signifies the Blackland Prairie in San Antonio. 2025.
The Blackland Prairie sits directly in the path of urban expansion, yet there are no safeguards that price in its ecological worth. That’s why it serves as a test case for rethinking how we value land, particularly rare and irreplaceable ecosystems found.
Addressing Missing Data
One major challenge in assessing the economic and ecological worth of Blackland Prairie is data inconsistency and lack of transparency. The city’s building permit records, which should reflect declared land valuation, are incomplete for recent years. San Antonio has not consistently recorded land valuation data in its development permits, making it impossible to track how ecosystem-rich land is being financially assessed...if at all. š³
One major challenge in assessing the economic and ecological worth of Blackland Prairie is data inconsistency and lack of transparency. The city’s building permit records, which should reflect declared land valuation, are incomplete for recent years. San Antonio has not consistently recorded land valuation data in its development permits, making it impossible to track how ecosystem-rich land is being financially assessed...if at all. š³
Why this should matter to you:
- Without valuation data, taxpayers can't track how much land is worth or how much revenue the city should be collecting.
- It hides real economic impact of development.
- It could allow land to be underpriced or misrepresented in financial reports.
The Blackland Prairie Market Failure – What’s It Actually Worth?
Using a combination of hedonic pricing models, Bayesian inference, and logistic decay projections, I estimate the real economic value of the Blackland Prairie land that remains in San Antonio.
Using a combination of hedonic pricing models, Bayesian inference, and logistic decay projections, I estimate the real economic value of the Blackland Prairie land that remains in San Antonio.
1. The Extinction Forecast
Using a logistic decay model, the forecasted remaining Blackland Prairie within San Antonio will be at functional loss in ~75 years. If development rates accelerate this timeline shrinks dramatically, potentially within a few decades.
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Trends in Large-Scale Developments City of San Antonio Open Data. 2025
One of the most striking findings from this San Antonio development permit analysis is that the curve suggests acceleration and a non-organic increase in permit approvals and applications over time, which is unusual unless theres an external driving force.
2. A True(er) Market Valuation E³VF Formula
Or, as I like to call it, the Exponential Ecological Economic Valuation because i'm fancy.
Current land pricing completely ignores ecological value, so to correct for that:
E3VF= (Sā+ HR) x I x e^s / EV
Where:
- Sā (Sustainable Net Worth): $5,000 per acre per year (carbon sequestration, flood control, soil health)
- HR (Health ROI): $2,000 per acre per year (mental, physical, and psychological health benefits)
- EV (Extinction Volatility): 5% annual risk of ecosystem collapse
- I (Intrinsic Factor): 1.5 multiplier (cultural, historical, and ecological significance)
- S (Scarcity Factor): 1.2 (to reflect the extreme rarity)
E3VF= (5000 + 2000) X 1.5 X e^1.2
0.05
E3VF ≈ (140,000) x 1.5 x 3.32
E3VF ≈ $697,680 per acre
Final Estimate of Blackland Prairie in San Antonio:
Total Estimated Remaining Prairie: 14,399 acres
Protected Prairie (Conservation Easements): ~2,880 acres
Unprotected Prairie with High-Quality Soil: ~6,912 acres
Total Prairie Loss from Historical Extent: ~91%
Percentage of All Remaining Blackland Prairie in Texas Located in San Antonio: ~12%
Percentage of the Original Blackland Prairie That Still Exists in San Antonio: ~8.23%
4. What Would Buyers Pay for This Land?
- Current market price for suburban development: $132,300 per acre ($3.04 per sq ft)
- Current market price for multi-use development: $198,450 per acre ($4.55 per sq ft)
- Bayesian-adjusted price considering rarity and soil value: $219,036 per acre ($5.03 per sq ft)
- Revised True Economic Value $766,947 per acre ($17.62 per sq ft)
- Blackland Prairie land is being sold at a fraction of its true(er) value.
- If the last 14,399 acres were properly valued based on ecological worth, scarcity, and true market adjustments, they would be worth $10 billion.
- If the 14,399 acres of Blackland Prairie were sold at a typical suburban development rate ($132,300 per acre) they would be worth $1.9 billion.
- This pricing failure benefits buyers who enter at low price, rely on structural appreciation, and externalize environmental losses to taxpayers.
While San Antonio's Blackland Prairie holds a true economic value of $17 per sq foot, undeveloped land in San Fransisco averages $165 per sq ft. Even in Austin, TX the average price per acre is $460k which is about $10 per sq ft, highlighting how undervalued San Antonio's ecologically rare land truly is. If scarcity were properly priced, the last remnants of Blackland Prairie would be nearly untouchable. Heres an underutilized opportunity to actually use scarcity as the driving price gauge.
I get being on sale every once in a while, but San Antonio was on clearance its whole life. Yall never priced nature like the irreplaceable asset it is-and lost the very thing that makes you proud to be from Texas.
Although there could be another theory, what if land value is inversely correlated with resource self-sufficiency?
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